April 6th 2017 - Written by: Suzan Reagan

Census Population Estimate Release March 2017

A look at New Mexico Trends –

In recent years, New Mexico has seen a change in its population growth trends. As of July 1, 2010, the New Mexico population estimate was 2,064,756.1 By 2013, the state population plateaued at 2,085,193 before declining to 2,080,328 in 2015. However, population in 2016 increased slightly to 2,081,015, resulting in a 0.03 percent increase over 2015 and a 0.79 percent increase over 2010. To put the slow rates of growth over the last six years in context, for the prior decade, 2000 through 2010, the population in New Mexico grew 13.43 percent.2

Since 2010, New Mexico counties in New Mexico had mixed results with regard to population growth. Only three counties had growth above 5 percent; those counties included: Eddy (6.9%), Lea (7.9%) and Sandoval (7.3%). Nine additional nine counties experienced positive growth since 2010.  Meanwhile, of New Mexico’s 33 counties, 21 had negative population growth. From 2010 to 2016, four counties experienced population declines greater than 10 percent including: Colfax (-10.8%), De Baca (-11.2%), Hidalgo (-11.4%) and San Juan (-11.6%). There were an additional nine counties with population declines greater than 5 percent including: Catron (-6.2%), Guadalupe (-6.7%), Lincoln (-5.1%), Mora (-7.8%), Quay (-7.7%), San Miguel (-5.6%), Sierra (-7.0%), Torrance (-6.6%), and Union (-8.0%). See table below.

 

Population Estimate (as of July 1)
2010 to 2016
2015 to 2016
Area
2010
2015
2016
% Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
% Change
Natural Increase
Net Migration
New Mexico
2,064,756
2,080,328
2,081,015
0.79
59,585
-37,780
0.03
7,692
-7,111
Bernalillo County
664,109
674,959
676,953
1.93
18,143
-3,222
0.30
2,083
39
Catron County
3,739
3,459
3,508
-6.18
-81
-90
1.42
0
41
Chaves County
65,753
65,529
65,282
-0.72
1,791
-2,003
-0.38
295
-565
Cibola County
27,314
27,322
27,487
0.63
821
-558
0.60
83
98
Colfax County
13,736
12,387
12,253
-10.80
-91
-1,392
-1.08
-19
-121
Curry County
48,959
50,206
50,280
2.70
3,347
-1,446
0.15
472
-371
De Baca County
2,019
1,831
1,793
-11.19
-66
-159
-2.08
-5
-39
Doña Ana County
210,203
213,567
214,207
1.90
9,659
-4,971
0.30
1,287
-720
Eddy County
53,906
57,611
57,621
6.89
1,809
2,068
0.02
371
-346
Grant County
29,399
28,564
28,280
-3.81
-189
-1,039
-0.99
-43
-220
Guadalupe County
4,692
4,364
4,376
-6.73
2
-335
0.27
1
10
Harding County
687
699
665
-3.20
-16
-15
-4.86
-1
-35
Hidalgo County
4,855
4,414
4,302
-11.39
61
-658
-2.54
1
-112
Lea County
64,623
70,848
69,749
7.93
3,834
1,275
-1.55
701
-1,778
Lincoln County
20,463
19,391
19,429
-5.05
-50
-944
0.20
-14
66
Los Alamos County
18,012
17,696
18,147
0.75
325
-151
2.55
66
388
Luna County
25,108
24,476
24,450
-2.62
607
-1,197
-0.11
116
-131
McKinley County
71,743
76,800
74,923
4.43
3,893
-477
-2.44
511
-2,400
Mora County
4,884
4,577
4,504
-7.78
-4
-366
-1.59
6
-86
Otero County
64,356
64,430
65,410
1.64
2,005
-269
1.52
290
722
Quay County
9,064
8,452
8,365
-7.71
-102
-600
-1.03
-16
-87
Rio Arriba County
40,310
39,526
40,040
-0.67
1,018
-1,084
1.30
63
431
Roosevelt County
20,007
19,074
19,082
-4.62
889
-1,682
0.04
140
-128
Sandoval County
132,370
139,157
142,025
7.29
3,154
6,797
2.06
418
2,284
San Juan County
130,135
118,701
115,079
-11.57
5,650
-20,770
-3.05
677
-4,299
San Miguel County
29,401
27,951
27,760
-5.58
272
-1,884
-0.68
-3
-196
Santa Fe County
144,465
147,708
148,651
2.90
1,616
2,540
0.64
142
709
Sierra County
12,030
11,261
11,191
-6.97
-817
7
-0.62
-122
46
Socorro County
17,803
17,222
17,027
-4.36
313
-1,129
-1.13
44
-231
Taos County
32,904
32,887
33,065
0.49
169
-47
0.54
-19
232
Torrance County
16,379
15,422
15,302
-6.58
51
-1,141
-0.78
2
-136
Union County
4,547
4,201
4,183
-8.01
-41
-324
-0.43
-2
-17
Valencia County
76,781
75,636
75,626
-1.50
1,613
-2,514
-0.01
167
-159

Components of population change include natural increase from births and deaths and migration both in and out of the area (net migration). Over the period from 2010 to 2016, New Mexico had a natural increase of 59,585 persons and a net migration of -37,780 persons. Twenty-four of New Mexico counties showed positive natural increase gains while only five counties show positive gains in net migration.

The US Census Bureau Population Estimate Program is the official source for intercensal population estimates. The Census Bureau released the 2010-2016 estimates March 23, 2017 at: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2017/cb17-44.html

The Population Estimate Program will release data on City and Town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population in May 2017.

The table above is based off the data tables which can be accessed at:

UNM’s Geospatial and Population Studies Department publishes independent population estimates for New Mexico that incorporate more input data than Census Bureau estimates. Annual estimates through 2015 can be found here on their website at http://gps.unm.edu/data/Population%20Estimates.html. Estimates for 2016 will be published in June of 2017.

The Bureau of Business and Economic Research Data Bank is happy to assist the public with finding the correct Census information. Please feel free to contact us at 277-3038 or 277-7066.

 

1 Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Dates: For the United States, regions, divisions, states, and Puerto Rico Commonwealth, December 2016. For counties, municipios, metropolitan statistical areas, micropolitan statistical areas, metropolitan divisions, and combined statistical areas, March 2017.

2 Table 2. Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex and Age for New Mexico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010 (ST-EST00INT-02-35) US Census Bureau Population Division Release October 2012


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