New Mexico Economic Forecasting (FOR-UNM)

ABOUT: The New Mexico Economic Forecast (FOR-UNM) has been produced exclusively by BBER for over 30 years. The economic forecasting service generates reliable projections of economic variables.

It is a tool for decision makers if New Mexico governments, businesses and non-profit organizations to understand economic trends in New Mexico and make decisions based on real data.

The forecast is used by NM’s State government for revenue projections in setting the state budget. The forecast can also be used by public and private organizations in budget planning  and decision making processes.

THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL: The FOR-UNM model is an employment/income regional model, consisting of over 250 equations. About two-thirds of the equations are estimated using statistical regression methods, and the remaining third are identity equations.

Each estimated equation explains the historical statistical relationship between a New Mexico economic variable, such as manufacturing employment, and one or more other variables. These explanatory variables may be national economic variables like interest rates or an index of manufacturing production and/or a New Mexico specific variable such as state population or state personal income. Through the specification of the model, national economic impacts as well as state-specific economic impacts are captured in the projection of the state economy. Linking the New Mexico econometric model to national economic activity requires the availability of a forecast of the U.S. economy in order to forecast the state economy. FOR-UNM relies upon the national economic projections of Global Insight, Inc., one of the largest and most reliable national economic forecast services. To reflect the structural differences between the economies of urban and rural New Mexico, the FOR-UNM model forecasts four regional models: Albuquerque MSA, Santa Fe MSA, Las Cruces MSA and non-metro New Mexico (the entire state of New Mexico minus the three metro areas). After forecasting the four regions, the results are summed to obtain a forecast for the entire state.

Subscription Options: 

Full Subscription: Subscribers  of the full forecast receive a report which includes narratives on the recent history and outlook for the United States, New Mexico, Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Santa Fe MSA's as well as non-metro economies; an executive summary; a summary in graphical form; and occasional features (e.g. Gaming in New Mexico, Leading Indicators, and Tourism updates). The report also includes tables containing quarterly and annual history and forecast data and growth rates for numerous New Mexico data series. Both the report (PDF) and the data series (MS Excel) are available in electronic format.

Subscribers are also invited to attend quarterly meeting where BBER presents and explains the recent history and forecast, addresses questions and discusses key issues. The meetings provide a valuable opportunity to connect with economists and policymakers representing all sectors of the community. The meetings are from 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM, and are followed by a catered lunch and networking session. Each meeting also includes a guest speaker to address various aspects of the economy. Attendance is in the 35-50 range.

Corporate Subscription: Includes all of the options in the full subscription plus one-on-one access to BBER's Director for data and analysis targeted to needs

NM Economic Snapshot: A slimmed down version of the full forecast, the NM Economic Snapshot provides business leaders with a quick update on the overall picture of the NM economy. Subscribers recieve a PDF publication that includes the forecast executive summary along with key charts and graphs. 

Pricing and detailed varaible information can be found in the following downloadable document: UNMBBER_About_NMEconomicForecast_.pdf

LOG IN: Current subscribers login via the Subscriber page.