ABOUT: The New Mexico Economic Forecast (FOR-UNM) has been produced exclusively by UNMBBER for over 30 years. The economic forecasting service generates reliable projections of economic variables.
It is a tool for decision makers in New Mexico governments, businesses and non-profit organizations to understand economic trends in New Mexico and make decisions based on real data.
The forecast is used by NM’s State government for revenue projections in setting the state budget. The forecast can also be used by public and private organizations in budget planning and decision making processes.
THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL: The FOR-UNM model is an employment/income regional model, consisting of over 250 equations. About two-thirds of the equations are estimated using statistical regression methods, and the remaining third are identity equations.
Each estimated equation explains the historical statistical relationship between a New Mexico economic variable, such as manufacturing employment, and one or more other variables. These explanatory variables may be national economic variables like interest rates or an index of manufacturing production and/or a New Mexico specific variable such as state population or state personal income. Through the specification of the model, national economic impacts as well as state-specific economic impacts are captured in the projection of the state economy. Linking the New Mexico econometric model to national economic activity requires the availability of a forecast of the U.S. economy in order to forecast the state economy. FOR-UNM relies upon the national economic projections of Global Insight, Inc., one of the largest and most reliable national economic forecast services. To reflect the structural differences between the economies of urban and rural New Mexico, the FOR-UNM model forecasts four regional models: Albuquerque MSA, Santa Fe MSA, Las Cruces MSA and non-metro New Mexico (the entire state of New Mexico minus the three metro areas). After forecasting the four regions, the results are summed to obtain a forecast for the entire state.
Full Subscription: Subscribers of the full forecast receive• The forecast is an annual subscription service.
• Produced quarterly (February, May, August, November).
• Touches on the National economy, focuses on the New Mexico economy.
• Breakouts for each of the major metropolitan areas - Albuquerque, Las Cruces, Santa Fe and non-Metro.
• Forecast variables include industry employment, income, labor force, oil & gas production, commercial and residential building permits and other leading indicators.
• Includes historical and five-year forecast data spreadsheet (XLS) on quarterly, annual and fiscal year time step.
• Includes complete forecast publication.
• Quarterly meetings.
Corporate Subscription: Includes all of the options in the full subscription plus one-on-one access to UNMBBER's Director for data and analysis targeted to needs
Pricing and detailed varaible information can be found in the following downloadable document: UNMBBER_About_NMEconomicForecast_.pdf
LOG IN: Current subscribers login via the Subscriber page.