The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has released state-level unemployment data (Local Area Unemployment Statistics, or LAUS) for the second quarter of 2020. New Mexico’s labor market thus far has been less severely impacted than in most other states and is in better shape than in the US as a whole.
Recent years have seen frequent employment status shifts. These shifts have had an effect on men’s and women’s employment and poverty status. For many years in New Mexico, men’s and women’s percent of the labor force has been close to fifty-fifty, with women’s being slightly under and men’s being slightly higher. In 2009, 2010, and 2012, using the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), women’s percent of the labor force was above 48 percent. Since then, women’s percentages have slightly slipped down to 46.6 percent in 2015. New Mexico Civilian Labor Force Status (Numbers in Thousands) Year Total Population Male Female Civilian Labor Force Male Female 2009 1,978 970 1,008 930 478 452 2010 1,978 960 1,018 891 460 431 2011 2,034 990 1,044 889 468 421 2012 2,039 991 1,048 892 459 433 2013 2,067 1,022 1,046 949 500 449 2014 2,100 1,057 1,043 958 507… View Full Post
In my last two blog posts, I discussed trends in labor force participation (here) and reasons why so many people are out of the labor force (here). As I noted in my most recent post, shifting demographic trends have changed the landscape of the labor force over the last decade and are likely to continue into the future – this is especially true of the oldest age cohorts. In particular, those cohorts have managed to simultaneously increase their rates of labor force participation while at the same time adding the largest number of people not in the labor force. The reason for this seeming incongruity is that population growth for this group is rapid. The population pyramid below, which is provided by the US Census Bureau, shows how the dynamics of the US population have changed through time. The pyramid, which allows you to scroll through years from 2000 to… View Full Post
The trends in unemployment rates for men and women since 1948 tell a story of how the world of work has changed. The chart below uses monthly data from 1948 to 2016 of the labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey Unemployment Rate for the US population 20 years and older. In 1949 the unemployment rate spiked for men at the end of World War II. From then until the early 1980’s men’s unemployment rates remain lower then women’s. In the nineteen-eighties the gap between men’s and women’s unemployment rates decrease. This reflects the greater labor force participation rates seen for women over this time. However, from 1980 forward through times of high unemployment, men’s unemployment rates tend to be higher then women’s with it being dramatically so during the Great Recession. The difference for the Great Recession can be attributed to the industries that saw contractions — primarily construction… View Full Post
As I discussed in my last blog post (here), labor force participation rates, and trends in the rates, vary greatly by age cohort. While the overall rate has generally fallen for the past 10 years, individuals in the 24 and younger age cohort have been particularly affected. Meanwhile, the rate for those aged 55 or older has generally gone in the opposite direction over the same period and hit all-time highs after the Great Recession. Individuals within the prime working age cohort of 25-54 fall somewhere between the two extremes; however, the series trend has been downward after the great recession. What explains the trends? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), using the Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement, investigated this very question (which can be found here). In that report, the BLS compared responses to surveys from 2004 and 2014. Individuals were asked to… View Full Post
Youth tend to have a much higher unemployment rate then other age groups. In New Mexico, the overall unemployment rate was 9.6 percent, but from the Census Bureau’s 2014 American Community Survey (ACS), 5 year estimates for 16 to 19 years old was 39.3 percent and 20 to 24 years old was 15.7 percent. In the United States, youth are also seen to have higher unemployment rates than other age groups with 16 to 19 years old at 27.1 percent and 20 to 24 years old at 15.3 percent. New Mexico’s youth aged 16 to 19 years at a 39.3 percent annual unemployment rate for 2014 from ACS is significantly higher than the the 27.1 percent seen nationally. The numbers show that many youths both in New Mexico and across the nation have a difficult time obtaining employment. Source: US Census Bureau American Community Survey, Table S2301 EMPLOYMENT STATUS for New… View Full Post
A data series that economists follow closely is the labor force participation rate. The labor force participation rate, which is estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the labor force aged at least 16 years (or all appropriately aged individuals classified as employed or unemployed) as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 or more. Prior to the Great Recession, the US participation rate peaked at 66.4%. In other words, 66.4% of all noninstitutionalized individuals were either employed or looking for work. However, post-recession, the rate has been on a downward trajectory and has now registers 62.7%. Analysts often argue that the declining participation rate is worrisome because it may signify weakness in the economy, and specifically in the job market. The argument goes: if the economy was in a better position, an increasing proportion of the population would be either working or looking for work…. View Full Post
According to the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation (http://kff.org/health-reform/state-indicator/total-monthly-medicaid-and-chip-enrollment/#) Medicaid/CHIP enrollment in New Mexico increased by 274,518 persons (60%) between January 1, 2014 and November 2015. Only four states have seen larger increases by percentage (Kentucky, Nevada, Colorado and Oregon). Note that not all of the increase in enrollment are individuals enrolled in Centennial Care; many have enrolled in programs previously available to New Mexicans (e.g. CHIP). In addition to providing health insurance to more than a quarter million New Mexicans, expanded enrollment in Medicaid has had a substantial employment impact in the state. The following is an analysis of the growth of employment in the health care and social assistance sector (NAICS 61) since January 1, 2014. The source of this data is the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Employment Growth in Health Care & Social Assistance, by Owner and Subsector, 2013Q-2015Q2 Since the beginning of… View Full Post