Economic and Fiscal Impacts of the Medicaid Expansion in NM Since Implementation in 2014

This brief updates a previous analysis performed by UNM BBER on the likely impacts of Medicaid Expansion in New Mexico. Under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) as enacted on March 23, 2010, states were required to extend Medicaid coverage to low-income adults under 65 years old with incomes up to 133% percent of the poverty level (138% after income disregards). However, the Supreme Court held that the federal government cannot withhold current Medicaid funding should a state decide to opt out of the Medicaid Expansion. When the previous report was written, New Mexico had not decided whether to implement the Medicaid Expansion. Subsequently, in January 2013, Governor Susana Martinez announced her decision to have New Mexico participate in the expansion. This brief examines: The additional flow of federal Medicaid dollars to the State of New Mexico since January 2014 as more and more eligible adults signed up to participate in the Medicaid Expansion and provides projections for the program through State Fiscal Year 2021. The projections through FY 2020 are based on enrollment and cost projections by the NM Health and Human Services Department (HSD) in December 2015. Details are in many cases informed by HSD projections that were made in conjunction with their September submission for the 2017 Budget cycle. Related to the ACA and the Medicaid Expansion, changes in federal and state programs designed to cover uncompensated care. The emerging economic data that reflect the impacts of the Medicaid Expansion to date. An analysis of the economic impacts on New Mexico of the Medicaid Expansion (including new job creation) since implementation in 2014 and as may be expected between now and 2021. Actual and anticipated impacts of the Medicaid Expansion on the State General Fund.