About / Services
New Mexico Economic Forecasting (FOR-UNM)
BBER’s flagship quarterly forecasting service gives public and private decision makers statewide and regional outlooks for New Mexico’s economy.
The New Mexico Economic Forecast (FOR-UNM) has been produced by BBER for over 30 years. This service provides information and analysis of economic trends that businesses and government leaders in the Land of Enchantment need to identify opportunities, evaluate performance and develop budgets.
The forecast is used by the state government for revenue projections in setting the state budget. The forecast can also be useful to public and private organizations.
The FOR-UNM model is an employment/income regional model, consisting of 375 equations. About two-thirds of the equations are estimated using statistical regression methods, and the remaining third are identity equations.
Each estimated equation explains the historical, statistical relationship between a New Mexico economic variable, such as manufacturing employment, and one or more other constituents. These explanatory factors may be national economic variables like interest rates and/or a New Mexico specific variable such as state population.
Through the specification of the model, national economic impacts as well as state-specific economic impacts are captured in the projection of the N.M. economy. Linking the state econometric model to national economic activity requires the availability of a forecast of the U.S. economy in order to project the state economy. FOR-UNM relies upon the national economic calculations of Global Insight, Inc., one of the largest and most reliable national economic forecast services.
To reflect the structural differences between the economies of urban and rural New Mexico, the FOR-UNM model forecasts six regional models: Albuquerque MSA, Santa Fe MSA, Las Cruces MSA, Farmington MSA, Permian Basin MSA (Lea and Eddy Counties) and non-metro New Mexico (the entire state of New Mexico minus the five metro areas). After forecasting those regions, the results are analyzed to obtain a forecast for the entire Land of Enchantment.
$7,500 annually
- Quarterly updates in February, May, August, and November.
- Outlooks on the national economy in addition to the state economy.
- Breakouts for Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces, Permian Basin, Santa Fe, and non-metro New Mexico.
- Forecast variables include industry employment, income, labor force, oil and gas production, commercial and residential building permits, and other leading indicators.
- Historical and five-year forecast data spreadsheet on quarterly, annual, and fiscal-year time steps.
- Complete forecast publication in electronic and hard-copy formats.
- Quarterly meetings with in-depth discussion, Q&A, and guest speaker presentations.
$25,000 annually
- All of the benefits in the full subscription.
- One-on-one access to BBER's director for data and analysis targeted to your needs.
- Database login access to multiple selected data sets.
- Name recognition and logo placement on the BBER website with an active link to your site.
- Logo placement on promotional fliers and other materials as appropriate.
$1,000 annually
- Quarterly updates in February, May, August, and November.
- Brief outlooks on the national and state economy.
- Limited breakouts for Albuquerque, Farmington, Las Cruces, Permian Basin, Santa Fe, and non-metro New Mexico.
- Forecast variables include personal income, employment, civilian labor force, and unemployment rate.
- Historical and two-year forecast data on quarterly and annual time steps.
- Publication in electronic format only.
Enter your name, email, and optional phone number. Someone from BBER staff will get back to you about FOR-UNM subscription options.